RIM (Research in Motion) is dying. That’s been evident since the release of the iPhone by Apple all the way back in 2007. Instead of immediately going to work on a new platform to compete with the iOS enemy, RIM insisted physical keyboards were the way to go and that touchscreens were a fad. Even when RIM finally released a touchscreen BlackBerry, the Storm with SurePress was a dud. And RIM quickly bled market share.
When RIM bought QNX, an integrated OS used for products from cars to industrial machinery, I thought maybe the company had a chance to revitalize itself, begin anew. Even when the Playbook launched without a dedicated email client or BBM, the hallmark features of any BlackBerry, I thought RIM could get back into the market before Microsoft took the number three spot in the mobile OS wars.
Now, RIM has delayed its new platform, BB10, from the second half of 2012 to the first half of 2013. This time delay gives Google, Apple, and Microsoft the time and ability to innovate further and continue to rob RIM of mind and market share. Android Jellybean (4.1), iOS 6.0, and Windows Phone 8 smartphones will have saturated the market by the time the first BB10 devices launch.
Along with all of this terrible news, Baird Equity Research has released developer interest numbers for the various mobile operating systems, and BB10 and BB7 interest are at an all-time low. Developers have dropped their long term outlook on BB10 from a 4.6 to a 3.8, representing a lack of faith in the platform as numbers for Android, iOS, and Windows Phone 8 have much higher long term outlooks from developers.
Baird states that the developers RIM has left are the truly loyal ones who will stick with the platform as everyone who would leave has left already. While this seems to merely be a positive spin, RIM also has the backup of its Android emulation layer to run Android apps. This route is certainly not preferred, but it does allow a multitude of Android apps to be sideloaded or downloaded from BlackBerry App World for when BB10 finally launches next year.
Frankly, this isn’t enough for RIM to survive. There is no way a number four platform in which developers aren’t interested can survive for the long-term. Even RIM’s last bastion, enterprise, is slowly moving over to Android and iOS through BYOD (Bring Your Own Device) IT setups. As much as I like competition in this space for the benefit of all consumers, RIM will fall in time. BB10 is going to be too little, too late, and it will fall in the way of Palm. Maybe RIM will be bought outright or sold into pieces, but it’s hard to forecast anything right now.
RIM has had these warning signs for a while, but CEO Thorsten Heins keeps trucking along, pretending everything is fine. I look forward to the release of BB10 smartphones and sincerely hope I’m wrong about RIM’s future. But as much as I want to be wrong, I don’t think I will be.
Oh really, they seem to be alive and kicking a year later… Not so dead now like you dead beat. Get lost, get paid and shut up already!
Well, not yet a full year, but thing do seem better than they did 10 months ago for sure. We’ve been hoping for the best (as noted in the article above) and fearing the worst (result of loving the late webOS). We’ll continue to wait and see how it goes.
I’m sure Blackberry appreciates your support.