Hold on a minute, Samsung, Nokia, and Motorola, don’t close up your feature phone shops just yet! While I respect the enthusiasm of Reuven’s Smartphone activation story, the truth is that the smartphone market still has a way to go before it even comes close to outnumbering standard feature phones.
Yes, the activation numbers posted by Apple and Google over the weekend are impressive (6.8 million), but not quite as impressive when you consider how many cellular phones are in use worldwide. A staggering 4.6 billion according to data from nearly two years ago, with projected data expecting even more by now. That means those numbers reported over the weekend comprise less than 0.2 percent of cell phones in total (yes, 0.2, as in less than 1 percent). In fact, smartphones account for less than 30 percent of the global cellular market, leading TechCrunch to declare it “still a feature phone world” according to 2011 sales figures.
Granted, here in the United States where handset sales are subsidized by the carrier, the percentage of smartphones is significantly higher. But many users are more interested in their phones being used for, you know, phone calls and nothing else. I’m not among those people. I’ve had a data plan on my phone for over a decade now (anyone else remember when WAP was cool?), and can’t imagine living without one. But I think that a 73 percent global market share hardly spells the death of the feature phone.
I have to admit I was surprised by the global numbers.
In the US, though, the smartphone will soon be king. The carriers are shelling out big money for their 4G networks, and they plan on making it back by moving everyone to their new high-priced tiered data plans.
Oh, its getting there. The numbers here in the US are more than 50%.
But there are plenty of people who don’t want Smartphones, and at some point everyone who wants one will already have one.
Don’t forget, there are people out there who don’t even care for SMS. We just don’t know from such people.
But the numbers in that other article are speaking about activations worldwide, so I feel it appropriate to consider the global market if we wish to interpret them.
I think the carriers are trying to remove the option. I know a couple of people struggling to find a decent phone with a QWERTY keyboard that doesn’t require a data plan. They’re making do with smartphones from 4 or 5 years ago, because Verizon will still activate devices that old without data. I think eventually the term “smartphone” will disappear, and they’ll just be the only cellphones available.
Actually, Verizon even forces a data plan on the old Palm Centros.
Before I got my HTC Incredible a year ago, I had a Palm Centro with Verizon for 2 years, and before that a Treo 650, and I was never forced to have a data plan. A swapped phones a few times over the years, and when I activated, Verizon always tried to put me into a data plan by default, but I always protested and they always turned it off when I asked.
While feature-phones may still currently be king, there is almost no emphasis placed upon by OEMs or carriers, especially in the US. While in certain huge lower income markets, feature-phones are still selling incredibly well, smartphone adoption has been picking up at an enormous rate, especially in the US, Europe, and other well-developed countries. My article was only pointing out the significance of the smartphone adoption rate. While feature-phones are currently still king, smartphones make carriers and OEMs more money and are the focus of all R&D money. As more 4G networks pop up all over the world, and data plans are pushed on every customer hankering with a need for apps, feature-phones will continue to decline in market share and plunge further into convalescence. While there will always be a market for simple phones without too many “features,” it is indisputable that iOS and Android are rapidly taking over and smartphones continue to represent a larger and larger demographic.
There is truth to that, but your numbers were misleading. And out of context.
The one-day activation stats are not very meaningful on their own. What we really need to look at is the percentage of all cell phones in use that are smartphones, and how that percentage has trended over time. I suspect that this percentage is growing very quickly and will continue to do so over the next five years.
Yes, this is true.
However, much like texting and other mobile trends, there will always be folks who can’t justify the extra fees on their monthly plan. Not everyone wants or needs a Smartphone.
However if the ubiquity of SMS is any indication of things to come, that minority will get very small before the rate of adoption plateaus.
Meanwhile, “dumbphones” are still the bread and butter of the wireless industry.
I am stuck trying to get a decent non-smart phone. I must one of the only techs out there without one. Heck, I even have a 3G iPad, but without the service. I do need one, but the cost is a deal breaker for me. If I get a new cell phone now, 6 weeks before I’m contract free, I’m stuck for another 2 year deal. If I move to another carrier, I break the contracts with my wife’s phone and end up paying more. I’m basically stuck with VZW, where after taxes(and removing features), I could end up paying only $20 more a month. But the value just isn’t there. The service is the best option up here, hands down, but I can pay almost the same and get free android phones, 4G, and pay roughly they same. Bi hate the situation im in.